Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago – Working Paper
The findings from the READI study are the focus of this academic paper.
Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 20:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.
Economic Club of Chicago- Chicago’s Safety Snapshot: Issues and Opportunities
These slides were presented by the Crime Lab at a forum hosted by the Economic Club and Commercial Club of Chicago.
Violence Reduction Dashboard
Webinar: Overview of the City of Chicago’s Violence Reduction Dashboard
Launched in May 2021 by the City of Chicago, with design and technical support from the Crime Lab, the Dashboard is a first-of-its-kind comprehensive tool that allows unfettered public access to city violence trends categorizable by victim type, date, and geographic area.
Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough To Help Prevent It
This National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable.
Unraveling the Threads of America’s Gun Culture
Megan Kang, a Crime Lab affiliate and Ph.D. candidate in sociology at Princeton University, outlines new historical evidence that charts the growth in firearm ownership.
Chicago nonprofits gather to discuss progress, solutions for gun violence
CBS Chicago’s Darius Johnson speaks with the Crime Lab’s Kim Smith and Dar’tavous Dorsey about the goals of the event, which hosted nearly 50 nonprofits from every corner of Chicago for its first gun violence prevention expo.
Strides for Peace to debut Gun Violence Prevention Expo
Strides for Peace hosted a new expo focusing on gun violence prevention in Chicago, featuring an information session from the Crime Lab’s Chico Tillmon.