Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago – Final Paper
The findings from the READI study are the focus of this academic paper.
Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.
Economic Club of Chicago- Chicago’s Safety Snapshot: Issues and Opportunities
These slides were presented by the Crime Lab at a forum hosted by the Economic Club and Commercial Club of Chicago.
Violence Reduction Dashboard
Webinar: Overview of the City of Chicago’s Violence Reduction Dashboard
Launched in May 2021 by the City of Chicago, with design and technical support from the Crime Lab, the Dashboard is a first-of-its-kind comprehensive tool that allows unfettered public access to city violence trends categorizable by victim type, date, and geographic area.
Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough To Help Prevent It
This National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable.
The Gun Violence Prevention Forum
Crime Lab Director of Programs Kim Smith spoke at the 5th Annual Gun Violence Prevention Forum on February 27, 2024. This virtual event mobilized the collective efforts of leading executives, clinicians, researchers, and policymakers around gun violence as a public health emergency.
Faith leaders: City Hall must step up to the plate and provide more funding for violence prevention
Michael Pfleger, Otis Moss III, Seth Limmer, and Ciera Bates-Chamberlain comment on the importance of funding community violence intervention (CVI) initiatives and point to the Crime Lab’s CVI Leadership Academy as a shining example, whose inaugural cohort was recognized by Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House.
Advocate, activist and healer: Myesha Watkins is trying to make Cleveland safer
Cleveland.com’s Molly Walsh highlights CVILA graduate Myesha Watkins’ visit to the White House as a part of the graduation of the CVILA’s inaugural cohort. Watkins is the executive director of the Cleveland Peacemakers Alliance, a crime prevention organization that focuses on helping communities become healthier environments to reduce violence.