Oct 2023
Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago – Final Paper
The findings from the READI study are the focus of this academic paper.
Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.

Coming April 21, 2025 – Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence
Crime Lab Pritzker Director Jens Ludwig authored a book that argues the lack of progress in reducing gun violence ultimately stems from our having misunderstood the nature of the problem, and that behavioral science gives us a new way to understand – and solve – gun violence in America.

Local Gun Violence Dashboards
Chicago’s Violence Reduction Dashboard, launched by the Crime Lab in 2021, is featured in a toolkit created by Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund as a part of its Gun Violence Data Fellowship.

Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States
This paper estimates the monetized value of the impact of reducing firearm violence and how that value is distributed across the population.
IL Office of Firearm Violence Prevention
The University of Chicago Crime Lab has partnered with the Illinois Office of Firearm Violence Prevention (OFVP) in support of the OFVP’s goal to use data to focus resources. The Crime Lab prepared the following interactive map to support the RPSA Youth Development Services grantmaking process.
Latest Updates
A Conversation on Recent Immigration Changes with Former Border and Customs Commissioner R. Gil Kerlikowske
The City Club of Chicago and the UChicago Crime Lab are hosting a dinner event in conversation with former Border and Customs Commissioner R. Gil Kerlikowske, who will share his insights on immigration and the role of state and local law enforcement, as well as the changes we can anticipate under the second Trump administration.

Jens Ludwig — Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence
Join Crime Lab Pritzker Director Jens Ludwig for a book talk and signing at Politics and Prose Bookstore at Union Market in Washington, DC for his upcoming book, “Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.”

Jens Ludwig and Chief Bill Scott: The Unexpected Origins of Gun Violence
Join Crime Lab Pritzker Director Jens Ludwig for a book talk and signing at The Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, CA for his upcoming book, “Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.”
