Oct 2023
Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago – Final Paper
The findings from the READI study are the focus of this academic paper.
Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.
Webinar: Overview of the City of Chicago’s Violence Reduction Dashboard
The Crime Lab hosted a webinar that explored the City of Chicago’s Violence Reduction Dashboard—a publicly available tool launched to support efforts to reduce gun violence through transparent, real-time data.
Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence
Crime Lab Pritzker Director Jens Ludwig authored a book that argues the lack of progress in reducing gun violence ultimately stems from our having misunderstood the nature of the problem, and that behavioral science gives us a new way to understand – and solve – gun violence in America.
Local Gun Violence Dashboards
Chicago’s Violence Reduction Dashboard, launched by the Crime Lab in 2021, is featured in a toolkit created by Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund as a part of its Gun Violence Data Fellowship.
Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States
This paper estimates the monetized value of the impact of reducing firearm violence and how that value is distributed across the population.
Latest Updates
Research on cognitive behavioral therapy for at-risk youth
Dr. Nour Abdul-Razzak joins host Jennifer Doleac on the Probable Causation podcast to discuss the Choose to Change program—an intervention that integrates trauma-informed therapy with comprehensive support to reduce youth violence and improve educational outcomes.
Deaths of decision-making are killing American teens. Schools can fix it.
Crime Lab executive director Katie Hill pens an op-ed for Brookings about how cognitive behavioral programs can teach teens decision-making skills that can dramatically reduce violence and save lives – often at little or no additional cost.
John McWhorter & Jens Ludwig – The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence
Jens Ludwig and John McWhorter join The Glenn Show with Glenn Loury to discuss Ludwig’s latest book, “Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.” Ludwig argues that much of the gun violence we observe in America arises from in-the-moment disputes rather than premeditated actions. He suggests that by applying principles from behavioral science, we can de-escalate altercations before things turn violent.
