May 2024
NBER Working Paper: Predicting Police Misconduct
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This paper outlines the results of research on over a decade of Chicago Police Department data that shows it is possible to predict risk of on-duty and off-duty misconduct, allowing police departments to prioritize training and supportive resources.
Whether police misconduct can be prevented depends partly on whether it can be predicted. We show police misconduct is partially predictable and that estimated misconduct risk is not simply an artifact of measurement error or a proxy for officer activity. We also show many officers at risk of on-duty misconduct have elevated off-duty risk too, suggesting a potential link between accountability and officer wellness. We show that targeting preventive interventions even with a simple prediction model – number of past complaints, which is not as predictive as machine learning but lower-cost to deploy – has marginal value of public funds of infinity.
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Projects
Policing Leadership Academy Graduation Interviews
Hear from a select group of PLA graduates on their experience with the academy.
Policing Leadership Academy Advisory and Research Committees
View the members of the PLA’s advisory and research committees.
Webinar- Situational Decision-Making: A New Training to Improve Policing
The Crime Lab hosted a webinar on the findings of our recently released study, A Cognitive View of Policing, which evaluated a pilot of the Situational Decision-Making (Sit-D) police training program.
NCGVR Webinar: Interventions to Improve Police Effectiveness
In a recent webinar hosted by the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, Oeindrila Dube presented her findings on the evaluation of Situational Decision-Making, while Philip Cook discussed the evaluation of the Chicago Police Department’s Area Technology Centers.
Latest Updates
U. of C. study shows cops at high risk of misconduct also at elevated risk for off-duty trouble
The Chicago Tribune’s Caroline Kubzansky speaks with Crime Lab Senior Research Director Greg Stoddard to discuss results from a new study of an officer support system.
Reset with Sasha-Ann Simons: Can police misconduct be stopped before it starts?
Crime Lab Senior Research Director Greg Stoddard joins Patrick Smith on WBEZ Reset to discuss results from a new study of an algorithm that can help identify which officers are likely to commit misconduct.
