May 2024
NBER Working Paper: Predicting Police Misconduct
Topics
Projects
This paper outlines the results of research on over a decade of Chicago Police Department data that shows it is possible to predict risk of on-duty and off-duty misconduct, allowing police departments to prioritize training and supportive resources.
Whether police misconduct can be prevented depends partly on whether it can be predicted. We show police misconduct is partially predictable and that estimated misconduct risk is not simply an artifact of measurement error or a proxy for officer activity. We also show many officers at risk of on-duty misconduct have elevated off-duty risk too, suggesting a potential link between accountability and officer wellness. We show that targeting preventive interventions even with a simple prediction model – number of past complaints, which is not as predictive as machine learning but lower-cost to deploy – has marginal value of public funds of infinity.
Topics
Projects
Video: Creating Safer Communities by Improving Policing
Griffin Catalyst highlights the Policing Leadership Academy, a new national leadership program that brings together rising police leaders from around the country for five months of advanced, intensive training in management best practices, leveraging data and technology and building community trust—all with the ultimate goal of creating safer, more vibrant communities.
Policing Leadership Academy (PLA) Overview
Read an overview of the Policing Leadership Academy (PLA), a first of-its-kind program launched in May 2023 to train America’s policing leaders working in some of our most violent neighborhoods.
Policing Leadership Academy Graduation Interviews
Hear from a select group of PLA graduates on their experience with the academy.
Policing Leadership Academy Advisory and Research Committees
View the members of the PLA’s advisory and research committees.
Latest Updates
U. of C. study shows cops at high risk of misconduct also at elevated risk for off-duty trouble
The Chicago Tribune’s Caroline Kubzansky speaks with Crime Lab Senior Research Director Greg Stoddard to discuss results from a new study of an officer support system.
Reset with Sasha-Ann Simons: Can police misconduct be stopped before it starts?
Crime Lab Senior Research Director Greg Stoddard joins Patrick Smith on WBEZ Reset to discuss results from a new study of an algorithm that can help identify which officers are likely to commit misconduct.
