Jan 2025

Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States

Philip Cook Jens Ludwig

This paper estimates the monetized value of the impact of reducing firearm violence and how that value is distributed across the population.

Gun violence imposes significant costs, but the best way to quantify these costs is controversial. In line with standard practice in economics and federal directives, we use the contingent valuation method to estimate Americans’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) to reduce gun violence. Households are willing to pay an average of $744 annually for a 20% reduction in gun violence, totaling $97.6 billion nationwide. This estimate is twice as high as a recent cost-of-injury (COI) estimate, suggesting that that method, widely used in health-policy analysis, underestimates the full societal impact of gun violence. Unlike the COI metric, WTP is not strongly correlated with demographic characteristics. The benefits of reducing gun violence are more closely associated with subjective concerns than observed victimization rates.

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Latest Updates

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Malcolm Gladwell pens a review of “Unforgiving Places,” a new book by Crime Lab Pritzker Director Jens Ludwig, that reflects on how the book “challenges our assumptions about why most shootings happen—and what really makes a city safe.”

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