Dec 2024
2024 End-of-Year Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends
Gun violence remains one of the most pressing challenges in America but there are signs of progress.
This year in Chicago, murders and non-fatal shootings continued to decline from their recent peak in 2020 and 2021. Despite these encouraging trends, Chicago continues to grapple with inequities tied to race and geography, as well as increased violent crime on aggregate.
Signs of progress: Homicides decreased by 7.3% since this time last year and non-fatal shootings decreased by 3.7%, remaining slightly above pre-pandemic figures.
Persistent challenging patterns:
- Black residents remain disproportionately impacted by gun violence, being 22 times more likely to be killed compared to White residents.
- The disparity is even greater when considering geography: neighborhoods with the highest homicide rates experience approximately 68 times more homicides than those with the lowest rates.
- While violent crime is down from last year, it still higher than the 5-year average. The primary contributors to this upward trend are aggravated assaults, aggravated batteries, and robberies (excluding carjackings)
There is more work to do: Shootings in Chicago are becoming more deadly.
Since 2010,
- Shooting lethality—the rate at which shooting victims die from being shot—increased by 44.9%.
- The number of high-capacity magazines recovered at shootings by the Chicago Police Department increased by over 480%.
- The average number of shell casings recovered per shooting victim has more than doubled.
These numbers represent far more than statistics—they reflect lives lost, families grieving, and communities striving for safety and justice. At the University of Chicago Crime Lab, we release this data because understanding the full scope of gun violence is essential to finding solutions. By examining these trends and inequities in depth, we hope to help policymakers and community leaders craft strategies that will support those most impacted by gun violence in 2025, and beyond.
The data visualizations below present our full end-of-year analysis on 2024 Chicago crime trends.
Gun violence not only irrevocably changes the lives of those directly impacted, it also disrupts the fabric of our communities. While our year-end analysis shows a hopeful decline in homicides and shootings, it also demonstrates that the lethality of gun violence incidents continues to rise—making the challenge of reducing gun violence more urgent than ever.
The data also highlights enduring disparities in gun violence’s impact, especially on Black communities. Equipped with these insights, we are committed to continuing to advance evidence-based policies and interventions that enhance public safety for all.
It’s not just about reducing numbers; it’s about achieving equity, safety, and justice for all who call our city home.
Executive Director
As a Chicagoan and researcher, I’m encouraged by the declines in homicides and shootings, but the persistent racial and geographic inequities in safety are deeply troubling, as is the increasing lethality of gun violence. I remain hopeful that, with data-driven insights, we can make meaningful progress in reducing violence and making shootings less deadly.
Analytics Manager
2023 End-of-Year Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends
These slides present our end-of-year analysis on Chicago crime trends.
Summer Safety Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends
These data visualizations present our summer safety analysis on Chicago crime trends.
Policing Leadership Academy (PLA) Overview
Read an overview of the Policing Leadership Academy (PLA), a first of-its-kind program launched in May 2023 to train America’s policing leaders working in some of our most violent neighborhoods.
Community Violence Intervention Leadership Academy Brief
Learn more about the Community Violence Intervention Leadership Academy in this brief.
Latest Updates
Jens Ludwig and Jacob Miller: We are seeing a lethal shift in America’s gun violence crisis
The Crime Lab’s Pritzker director Jens Ludwig and analyst Jacob Miller provide commentary on the increase in the lethality of shootings despite the decrease in overall gun violence last year.
Handguns turned into machine guns keep fueling killings in Chicago
The Chicago Sun-Times’ Frank Main and Tom Schuba cite Crime Lab research showing that gun switches and high-capacity magazines that hold bullets have dramatically increased the lethality of shootings in Chicago.
Chicago reports drops in murders and shootings, uptick in robberies throughout 2023, data reveals
Crime Lab Executive Director Roseanna Ander spoke with NBC Chicago/WMAQ-TV to discuss the release of the Crime Lab’s end-of-year analysis of crime trends, which found Black Chicagoans are 20 times more likely to become victims of crime than white Chicagoans.
