Longer-Term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago

Abstract

We conduct a large-scale, randomized controlled trial of a six-month intervention combining intensive mentoring and group cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for youth in Chicago, following study participants for up to five years. The program was designed to engage young people at higher risk of engagement with the criminal justice system, and successfully did so with a take-up rate of 62%. Over 24 months, youth offered the program experienced an 18% reduction in the probability of being arrested, with no impact on number of arrests. We find a significant impact on violence engagement, with a 23% reduction in the probability of a violent-crime arrest within 24 months. We find the program’s impact in preventing any arrest persists into adulthood, up to four years post randomization. The program moderately improves school engagement in the first year as well. Sub-population analyses suggests that all youth are benefiting from the program, but that the program may be moving different outcomes for different groups of youth in ways related to baseline risk of engaging in the justice system or disengaging from school. We conclude that programs that combine CBT and mentoring can serve as a model to engaging a harder-to-reach population of youth, predominantly outside of school, and be cost effective in reducing criminal justice contact in the longer run.